bellwether counties epoch times23 Apr bellwether counties epoch times
2016 Trump. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Theres significant variability among them though. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Im looking at both sides of it. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. He says hell vote for Trump. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Theres significant variability among them, though. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. . The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. And its never going to come back.. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Pre-performance Lobby events. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Two states have announced recounts. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. I think thats what the world needed. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. He says Democratic Gov. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. He is his own worst enemy.. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Logistically, its a disaster. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. To accept cookies, click continue. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. I kind of keep in my bubble. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. We believe that there are two main reasons. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Jim Hoft. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. What you need to know, summarized in one email. He pissed off a lot of people. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Your email address will not be published. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. Medicare is becoming a joke. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter.
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